Brexit Impact on the U.K., the E.U. and India -

Brexit Impact on the U.K., the E.U. and India  -

BREXIT’s Impact on  the UK, the EU and India

 

People of UK have voiced their opinion and voted for exit from the European Union. This move comes despite of warning shots fired by various organizations like the IMF and OECD about the repercussions of such move. Needless to say, the move leaves UK, European and the Global economy in a vulnerable position and will have a significant impact. In its earlier outlook for Britain, the IMF had cut its forecast for economic growth this year from 2.2% to 1.9%. OECD too had lowered its forecast for UK GDP to 1.75% in 2016 from 2.1% and indicated that the growth would lower to 1.5% in case the result of the referendum is a vote to leave. 
 
 
How does it impact UK and Europe? 
 
Trade: EU membership provides an open access to the single market in the Europe. By exiting the EU, Britain has two year period to negotiate trade terms with EU members as well as other European countries and the countries that have an existing trading relations with the EU. The move means that UK will lose its exports to the EU which currently account to ~45% of its total Exports. Although the BREXITTERs feel that they have an upper hand in negotiating trading terms, this move will make it easier said than done. The negotiations are estimated to last longer than the two year period as the EU would like to send a message to other Member nations to deter such moves in the future. 
 
The exit will bring in tariffs that will make the cost of goods more expensive for its citizens in the UK and also make goods ands and services from UK uncompetitive. Higher tariffs by EU will result in tit for tat move by UK which will impact EU exports to the UK. Even if UK were to be able to negotiate trade terms that are similar to that of Norway and Switzerland, as per analysis by the Centre for Economic Performance, the sum of the static and dynamic trade losses would be almost 2.2% of GDP for UK. The Center had estimated that in an pessimistic scenario, there would be income falls of 6.3% to 9.5% of GDP. Employment: UK was seen as a gateway to the EU and has housed several MNC headquarters which created jobs in the country. As per media sources, nearly 3mn jobs in the UK are linked to trade with the EU and many financial institutions and manufacturing companies will likely move their offices from London to EU as a result of barriers. This will cause an increase in unemployment in UK to some extend as it will be able to add some jobs back owing to higher spends arising from savings from contribution to the EU budget. 
 
 
How does it impact India? 
 
Though India’s trade with UK is only limited to ~3.4% of exports and ~5.2% of imports, EU is a significant trade partner for India and accounted for ~13.5% of the exports and ~11.6% of the imports. The UK and EU economy which was already under pressure might see further slowdown in trading activities which will impact the Indian exporters. In FY16 Indian exports to UK stood at $8.83bn while imports were to the tune of $5.19bn. Textiles and Auto components have increased their exports to the EU in the last few years and slow down in the EU zone including UK might result in no fresh capex by the companies back home. 
 
 
Sector-wise impact 
 
Pharmaceuticals: The Brexit will have some short term impact on the currency markets more profoundly and hence will be reflected in the financials of the pharmaceuticals companies. Besides currency market, the impact of UK removing from EU, should not have major impact on the financials, as UK standalone is not a very big market for the Indian Pharma Industry. UK Pharma Industry is estimated to reach US$ 27-37bn market by 2018, a 4-7% CAGR growth of 2014-18. The company’s exposure to the EU under our overage is lower except for Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals and IPCA Labs (where it’s around 25% of sales). Thus these companies are more exposed to volatility arising out of the development, both in currency terms and possible some impact on the approvals in the region (especially UK), though fundamentally the UK pharmaceutical market should not see major change. Currently we are not changing our estimates and maintain our buy on Aurobindo Pharma, IPCA Labs, Sun Pharma and Lupin. 
 
 
IT Services: The BREXIT, will have some short term impact on the currency markets more profoundly and hence will be reflected in the financials of the IT Service companies. Besides currency market, the impact of UK removing from EU, should not have major impact on the financials, as UK standalone is not a very big market for the Indian IT Industry. Moreover on a macro view, about 3.5% of India’s exports are to the UK, and 1.5% of total imports are from the UK; thus, Brexit is not likely to have a significant impact on India’s trade. Thus, while many IT companies have around 20% of their sales to the EU region, we believe the move will unlikely to impact the business prospects of the Industry and the only near term impact could be on back of the currency movements. The EU currency exposure of our IT coverage is Wipro (~ 8%), Tech Mahindra (11.3%), Infosys (9%), and TCS (8%). Currently we are not factoring any changes in our estimates and hence our Top picks remain TCS, Infosys and HCL Tech. 
 
Capital Goods: We expect Capital-Goods companies which either derive their business or have exposure (through subsidiaries and JV agreements) to European continent to be affected on account of the ‘BREXIT’. Companies like Crompton, VA Tech Wabag, Elecon, Thermax, Centum Electronics (derive 10-40% of the revenues from European operations), which have European subsidiaries, of JV arrangements could see slow-down in their European operations, thereby restricting their consol. entity’s growth prospects. Further, companies like ABB India, Siemens, Alstom (derive less than 10% of total revenues), which do exports to European Sub-continent could see adverse impact of ‘BREXIT’. Lastly, companies like Inox Wind which have 40% of their raw materials imported from International markets (mainly from Europe) should see impact of currency movement on their financials, going forward. On a whole, the BREXIT development is negative for the broader Capital Goods sector, as one key market could see sharp slow-down and accordingly restrict the growth prospects of some of the key Indian players. Currently we are not factoring any changes in to our estimates and hence maintain BUY rating on Wabag, Inox, Voltas and Blue Star. 
 
Metals: Tata Steel exports ~30% of its UK’s production to the European Union and change in tariff structure could impact the sales volume going ahead. Commodity prices also are likely to be under pressure in the near term and this would put further pressure on the valuations of the assets when Tata Steel wants to exit its UK operations. Silver prices have started rising and this could be beneficial to Hindustan Zinc. However, further Zinc and Lead which has direct co relation to the  industrial and automotive industry could see pricing pressure in the near term. Overall we believe the impact on the Indian metal companies to be negative. 
 
Auto & Auto Components: Indian Auto OEMs except Tata Motors don’t get impacted directly due to BREXIT. However, among the OEMs Tata Motors would have one of the highest negative impacts among the Indian corporate. Its UK subsidiary JLR had earlier indicated that it may lose an estimated 1 billion Pound by 2020 if Britain Exits EU. Exit from EU would result in 10% levy on exports to EU and on other hand 4% import duty on the components for manufacturing of Auto. JLR derives ~24% of its volumes from EU while sources ~35% of components imports. Bharat Forge derives ~64%of the revenues from exports with 39% of the revenues coming from EU and 23% from USA. The commercial vehicle market and High end passenger vehicle market in EU has seen some recovery in the recent quarters. But now can see pressure on growth with likely hood contagion effect of the BREXIT. We have NEUTRAL Rating on Tata Motors and BUY rating on Bharat Forge. 
 
Banks: ICICI Bank has one of the highest exposure to Europe via UK amongst the Indian banks. The Banks overseas exposure is much higher than other pvt sector banks with ~21% of the loans book comprising of international markets. However, the bank of late has been not in an expansion mode in the overseas operations. Though early to quantify the banks UK business is likely to see some impact in the near term. Among other banks Bank of India and Bank of Baroda has meaningful overseas operations. We maintain ACCUMULATE rating on ICICI Bank and NEUTRAL on BoB and BoI. 

DISCLAIMER

Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitian Stock Exchange of India Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst.

Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important ‘Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

 

 

Angel Broking -

Market Outlook

 

June 27,2017
 www.angelbroking.com
 
 
 
 
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